Blog > Predictions for 2026 Housing Market
For 2026, experts predict a more balanced housing market with a modest rise in home sales and slow home price growth, driven by slightly lower mortgage rates and an easing of the inventory crunch. The overall theme is a "reset" and gradual recovery, not a dramatic boom or bust.
Key Predictions for 2026
- Mortgage Rates: Rates are generally expected to decrease slightly and stabilize in the low-to-mid 6% range, with some forecasts from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and Fannie Mae anticipating they could reach around 6% or even slip into the high 5% range by the end of the year. This moderation, however, will not bring a return to the ultra-low pandemic-era rates.
- Home Prices: A national collapse in prices is unlikely due to persistent supply shortages. Instead, prices are expected to continue their modest rise at a more sustainable pace, generally between 1% and 4% nationally, with wage growth likely to outpace price gains, gradually improving affordability.
- Home Sales: Sales volume is projected to increase after several stagnant years, with pent-up demand from sidelined buyers and sellers finally being released. Forecasts for the increase in existing home sales vary, from a modest 1.7% (Realtor.com) to a more optimistic 14% (NAR).
- Inventory: The number of homes for sale is expected to rise gradually as more homeowners, whose life events like job changes or growing families are pushing them to move, put their properties on the market. This increased supply will offer buyers more choices and slightly more negotiating power.
- Regional Variation: National averages will mask significant local differences. Markets in the Northeast and Midwest that have remained supply-constrained are likely to see stronger price growth, while some markets in the South and West that built aggressively may see prices cool further.
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